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EdgeProof Docs

Interpretation

How to read what each stage shows.

Feasibility

ResultRead it asNext step
Zero tradesStrategy didn't trigger, wrong data, or overly-restrictive filtersFix before optimizing
Huge profit, tiny drawdownOften a sign something's mis-set — costs, MaxBarsBack, or the date rangeDouble-check settings before trusting it
Small loss or flatNot automatically disqualifyingCheck other symbols/intervals before committing to a full run
Reasonable profit and drawdownWiring looks soundContinue to Optimization

Optimization

Optimization finds candidates — it doesn't prove an edge exists. Look for several neighboring parameter sets performing well rather than one isolated spike (the Robustness tab shows this directly); results that hold up across more than one symbol or interval; and a trade count large enough that the numbers mean something (a rule of thumb, not a hard line: fewer than 50–100 trades over your test window is thin). Be wary of a headline Net Profit that's high only because Avg Trade is large before costs and tiny after them.

Candidates and Monte Carlo

Prefer a steady, diagonal equity curve over a staircase carried by a handful of trades, and over a curve that flattens toward the end of the test period. Look at drawdown duration, not just depth. If Monte Carlo's median outcome already looks marginal, the backtest's best-case number is misleading you. If Batch Validation flags a candidate as failing, its real-world result likely depended more on favorable trade ordering than genuine edge. Use Deep Analysis, Time, and Risk alongside the core Analytics view before settling on a candidate — a strategy that only works in one seasonal window, or one that's fragile to a couple extra ticks of slippage, is worth knowing about before you commit further time to it.

WFO Config Matrix

You're looking for a robust region, not the single brightest cell. A green cluster spanning several neighboring Segment/OOS% values, with different segments picking different winning parameter sets, is a far stronger signal than one standout cell surrounded by blanks — that pattern usually means the result only works at one specific, arbitrary setting.

Validation

OutcomeRead it asDecision
WFO tracks or beats InitialStrong generalizationCandidate for Live Trading
WFO profitable but noticeably below InitialSome degradation is normalUsually still workable — check the metrics table for exactly how much
WFO flatEdge may not survive contact with unseen dataRework or reject
WFO loses moneyThe walk-forward test failedDo not proceed to Live Trading
Initial baseline hidden with a warningOOS windows couldn't be resolved — check that WFO Config actually produced a ValidParams file for this runRe-run WFO Config before trusting the comparison